By Ryan Marks
If you still think Non QM is only a California, Florida, Texas story, the map just got blurrier. That helps self employed buyers and rental investors outside the usual hotspots, as long as you shop the documentation path that fits your file.
HousingWire’s September 21, 2026 report on todays Non QM borrower puts numbers behind the blur. Citing Bank of America Securities, HousingWire says Non QM originations are expected to reach about $175 billion in 2026, up from about $108 billion in 2025. Demand is investors and self employed borrowers, not one metro nickname.
Hotspots still lead. They no longer own the story.
California, Florida, and Texas remain large Non QM markets. They are not the whole market.
HousingWire summarizes Griffin Fundings first party production through mid September 2026. Griffin’s average borrower had a 731 FICO score, and 93 percent of its funded volume came from Non QM products. Investment properties accounted for 56 percent of loans. About 21 percent involved self employed borrowers qualifying through bank statements, 1099s, or profit and loss statements.
On geography, HousingWire reports Griffins top dollar volume shares at 16.4 percent in California, 10.1 percent in Florida, and 7.3 percent in Texas. Bill Lyons of Griffin told HousingWire the rest pretty much falls off to about 3 percent to 5 percent in every other state.
That pattern matters more than a hotspot headline. If you are self employed in a quieter market, the product lane can still exist. Your job is to prove cash flow, credit, equity, and occupancy the way the program expects.
SEI’s primer on what a Non QM mortgage is is the map. SEI’s bank statement loans and DSCR loans pages are the living guides when deposits or rental cash flow drive the file.
Self employment is rising in more states. That is not automatic Non QM demand.
Self employed workers are not confined to big coastal metros. HousingWire cites Max Slyusarchuk of AD Mortgage on self employment rising in 29 states since 2019, with Rhode Island, Vermont, New Mexico, Nevada, and Arkansas among the largest increases in self employed share based on AD Mortgage’s reading of U.S. Census Bureau data. Tom Davis of Deephaven Mortgage, also quoted by HousingWire, puts the self employed population above 19 million people operating more than 30 million businesses.
Slyusarchuk also warned HousingWire against equating high self employment rates with high Non QM concentrations. Self employment signals that conventional tax return math may understate cash flow. It does not mean every business owner should force a Non QM label onto a clean conventional scenario. Davis told HousingWire the majority of Non QM is bank statement and investor business, often high income borrowers with larger down payments. That is a documentation story, not a soft credit story.
Investors remain half the engine. Secondary markets show up too.
HousingWire reports Griffin’s DSCR loans at 40 percent of dollar volume and 44 percent of loan count. Griffins typical DSCR borrower had a 731 FICO and a 67.6 percent average loan to value. More than 91 percent of those DSCR loans had rental income sufficient to cover the full payment, and nearly three quarters of borrowers had FICO scores of at least 700.
Marc Halpern of Foundation Mortgage told HousingWire an about $11 million Non QM pool carried an average FICO of 746 and a 58 percent loan to value, mostly investor loans. HousingWire also notes Griffin DSCR loan counts in Columbia, South Carolina; Lawton, Oklahoma; Indianapolis; and Lincoln, Nebraska.
If the asset is a rental, start with whether the property’s rent supports the program. SEIs DSCR loans page is the investor lane. Do not force a rental tool onto a primary home file.
Pick the path by how you earn and occupy
Self employed primary buyers and rental investors are not the same file.
If you live in the house and tax returns understate deposits, start with bank statement, 1099, or profit and loss underwriting. SEI’s bank statement loans page covers the deposit path. SEI’s P and L loan page covers CPA prepared profit and loss scenarios.
If you are buying or refinancing a rental, start with DSCR when the property cash flow is the point. Mixing those goals is how files stall.
For how bank statement income can tell a different story than tax returns for a self employed buyer, watch the full explainer below. You can also review how a profit and loss mortgage can fit when tax returns are the wrong mirror, how 1099 freelancers and contractors approach Non QM, top reasons borrowers use bank statement loans, or DSCR versus conventional on a rental.
One recommendation for early October
One recommendation: before you chase a state hotspot narrative, write down occupancy, how you earn, and which documentation path matches that story. Then shop that lane in your market.
Ask whether you are an owner occupant with deposit cash flow that tax returns understate. Ask whether you are an investor whose rent should carry the underwrite. Ask whether 12 months or 24 months of statements, 1099 history, a CPA prepared P and L, or rental coverage is the cleanest proof. Ask for the guideline in plain language, not a vague “we can do Non QM” promise.
Do not confuse a $175 billion Non QM outlook with permission to stretch every assumption. Demand is spreading. Standards still matter. Clean deposits, real equity, honest occupancy, and a product that matches the file beat a coastal rumor.
How to use this without getting played by the map
Start with one question. Does my income or my rental cash flow fail conventional boxes for a documentation reason, not a credit fairy tale?
If yes, Non QM may be the right toolkit. If you are self employed on a primary home, do not force a rental DSCR tool onto a primary file. If you are buying rentals, do not force personal tax return drama onto a property that can stand on rent.
SEI Mortgage is educational and does not originate. Loans are originated through Everyday Lending Group and brokered through Arbor Financial Group. Ryan Marks, NMLS 519138. Not available in New York. This post is education, not a credit decision, rate quote, or guarantee of approval.
Attribution: Non QM borrower geography, Griffin production mix, AD Mortgage self employment Census analysis, Deephaven and Foundation comments, and DSCR secondary market examples via HousingWire September 21, 2026. Non QM originations outlook via HousingWire September 21 citing Bank of America Securities.
If you want a scenario review for a self employed primary file or a rental purchase, start at www.seimortgage.com.
—
